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5.2 Million and Counting
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The devil is in the data. That's the consensus following an October 29–30 colloquium on the recently published, highly controversial 2000–2001 National Jewish Population Study (NJPS), organized by the Wilstein Institute of Jewish Policy Studies and Brandeis University's Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies. Drawing together 40 of the nation's prominent Jewish demographers, social scientists, scholars and community leaders—including NJPS consultants and critics—the colloquium focused both on the study's methodological weaknesses and on the reliability of its findings.

Release of the $6 million NJPS was delayed by a year when sponsoring agency United Jewish Communities (UJC) announced that the firm conducting the survey had discarded some crucial data that could affect overall findings. UJC commissioned an internal audit, headed by Mark Schulman, founding partner of the polling firm Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas. Speaking at the conference, Schulman said the study probably had undercounted the number of American Jews and overestimated their Jewish affiliations. Nonetheless, he said the NJPS was reliable overall.

Many at the conference agreed with Hebrew University sociologist Steven Cohen, senior consultant to the study, who believes the population data is less reliable, but affirms findings about attributes such as religious affiliation and Jewish identity and how these factors influence trends in intermarriage, Jewish education and charitable giving. According to the NJPS, 5.2 million Jews live in the United States, a 5.5 percent decline since the study was last conducted in 1990. In addition, the study reported that among Jews who wed during the last five years, 47 percent married a non-Jew, compared to 43 percent 10 years ago. Conference participants concurred that the actual Jewish population figures could be anywhere between 4.8 million and 6.2 million.

The colloquium was just the first step in a process of analyzing the data, issues and trends. Next, according to Wilstein Associate Director Rabbi Zachary Heller, small working groups of scholars will convene to continue the assessment. "The result of those conversations," says Heller, "will influence the future of regional and national Jewish community studies."

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